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Recent national workforce modeling reveals that while the United States nearly met the demand for obstetrician-gynecologists (OB/GYNs) in 2025, most states are expected to experience serious OB/GYN shortages over the next decade. Only a small number of states are projected to maintain adequate physician supply, raising concerns about women’s healthcare access, especially in rural & underserved communities.

The analysis, based on data from the Health Resources & Services Administration (HRSA), indicates that nonmetropolitan and rural regions will face the most severe impacts. However, experts emphasize that early planning, targeted investment, and modern care delivery models could help reduce the severity of these shortages.

> Why the OB/GYN Workforce Gap Is Growing

According to physician workforce researchers William Rayburn, MD, MBA, of the University of New Mexico School of Medicine, and Imam M. Xierali, PhD, the current OB/GYN workforce alone will be insufficient to meet future women’s healthcare needs.

Their research, published in Obstetrics & Gynecology, analyzed HRSA’s Health Workforce Simulation Model, which integrates population growth, healthcare utilization trends, physician retirement patterns, training pipelines, and geographic distribution.

Despite uncertainties inherent in long-range projections, the authors describe the dataset as highly reliable due to its use of full-time equivalent (FTE) calculations that include both full-time and part-time clinicians.

> Current Supply vs. Future Demand

In 2025, approximately 40,975 OB/GYN FTEs were practicing nationwide, meeting about 93% of national demand. However, regional disparities were already evident:

〉The Central Midwest and Intermountain West showed the greatest gaps

〉Among large states, New York met demand

〉California, Texas, Florida, and Pennsylvania fell short

Looking ahead to 2035, projections suggest a 9.3% decline in the national OB/GYN workforce, leaving only six states, Hawaii, New York, Connecticut, Maryland, Rhode Island, and Louisiana, with sufficient physician coverage.

> States Facing the Most Severe OB/GYN Shortages

Several states are expected to meet less than 70% of OB/GYN demand, placing them in the highest-risk category for women’s healthcare access challenges:

〉Nevada

〉Arizona

〉Arkansas

〉Oklahoma

〉Iowa

〉Idaho

〉Utah

Overall, 33 states are projected to experience severe OB/GYN inadequacy, defined as meeting under 85% of patient demand. Experts warn that without intervention, these shortages will continue to worsen.

> Limitations of the Workforce Model

While the HRSA data are robust, researchers acknowledge important limitations:

〉The most recent data reflect pandemic-era conditions (2022)

〉The model does not clearly distinguish between general OB/GYNs and subspecialists

〉Subspecialists tend to cluster in urban centers, skewing rural workforce estimates

Editorial contributors from the American Board of Obstetrics & Gynecology (ABOG) and Dell Medical School highlighted that nearly 20% of OB/GYNs were subspecialists in 2024, a figure expected to rise to 30%.

Notably, certification survey data suggest that many subspecialists spend little or no time practicing their specialty, complicating accurate workforce planning.

> Advanced Practice Providers: An Oversupply Contrast

Interestingly, HRSA projections show a future oversupply of women’s health advanced practice providers, including nurse practitioners, physician assistants, and midwives reaching 135%–201% adequacy by 2035.

However, because OB/GYN physician models are separate from advanced practitioner models, experts caution that current projections do not fully capture team-based women’s healthcare delivery, an increasingly common approach.

> Impact of Reproductive Health Policy Changes

The 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision, which overturned Roe v. Wade, may influence future OB/GYN workforce trends. While no immediate workforce shifts have been confirmed, concerns remain that physicians may relocate away from states with strict reproductive healthcare laws.

Other factors likely to shape workforce demand include:

〉Declining U.S. birth rates

〉Closure of rural hospitals

〉An aging female population with increasing gynecologic needs

> Strategies to Reduce the OB/GYN Workforce Crisis

Experts recommend a multi-layered approach to mitigating OB/GYN shortages:

〉Expanding residency training capacity (despite funding challenges)

〉Delaying physician retirement through flexible schedules

〉Increasing use of telehealth for women’s healthcare

〉Integrating primary care physicians into gynecologic care models

〉Expanding loan repayment and rural incentive programs

〉Leveraging advanced practice providers within collaborative teams

Addressing burnout, long work hours, and workforce retention is also critical to sustaining the OB/GYN pipeline.

> The Road Ahead for Women’s Healthcare Access

As the population ages, demand for services such as gynecologic oncology, pelvic floor care, infertility treatment, menopause management, and maternal-fetal medicine will continue to rise. Workforce planners stress that adapting training pathways and redefining care models will be essential to ensuring equitable access to women’s healthcare nationwide. The authors report no financial disclosures or external funding, underscoring the independence of the findings.

> Conclusion

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